The Myth of the First Round Quarterback

Draft 2014

As the Draft approaches, The Machine smiles with delight.  Each year, the slate is wiped clean, each team is reborn, and the Draft begins the process of building your team into the next NFL powerhouse.  Hell, it’s even a good time to be a Jets fan.  It’s also a great time to test your knowledge of your team, and see how your mock matches up to the “experts”.

One common theme each year is that teams at the top of the Draft need to grab that franchise quarterback.  “New regime, new quarterback” is often thrown around.  But is that really true nowadays?  Is spending a first round pick on a quarterback a must?  Recent history would tell us otherwise.  Let’s look at The Machine’s uber-fancy chart of the last two years of playoffs teams, and where these quarterbacks were drafted.

2013

Team QB Round (pick)
Broncos Peyton Manning 1st (1)
Indy Andrew Luck 1st (1)
Carolina Can Newton 1st (1)
Kansas City Alex Smith 1st (1)
San Diego Philip Rivers 1st (4)
Green Bay Aaron Rodgers 1st (24)
New Orleans Drew Brees 2nd (32)
Cincinnati Andy Dalton 2nd (35)
San Fran Colin Kaepernick 2nd (36)
Philly Nick Foles 3rd (88)
Seahawks Russell Wilson 3rd (75)
Patriots Tom Brady 6th (199)

 

2012

Team QB Round (pick)
Broncos Peyton Manning 1st (1)
Indy Andrew Luck 1st (1)
Washington RGIII 1st (2)
Atlanta Matt Ryan 1st (3)
Baltimore Joe Flacco 1st (18)
Green Bay Aaron Rodgers 1st (24)
Cincinnati Andy Dalton 2nd (35)
San Fran Colin Kaepernick 2nd (36)
Seattle Russell Wilson 3rd (75)
Houston Matt Schaub 3rd (90)
Minnesota Joe Webb 6th (199)
Patriots Tom Brady 6th (199)

Over the last two years, having a first round QB gives you a 50% chance of making the playoffs.  That’s it.  Not really overwhelming odds, about the same odds The Machine has to date Kate Upton.  Obviously, much more goes into making the playoffs than having a first round quarterback…but that’s exactly our point.

Yeah, a 50% seems right.

Yeah, a 50% chance seems right.

Football is the ultimate team sport, and teams should be focused on building a balanced team, and valuing team positions (OL, DL, Secondary) over individual skill positions (QB, RB, WR).  Look no further than the reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle’s rise to Super Bowl Champion did not come on the arm of a first round QB or the hands of a legit #1 WR.  Instead, Seattle had a dominant offensive line that made Marshawn Lynch (a Buffalo Bills reject) a Top 5 RB, and gave Russell Wilson the time to throw to a collection of no name WRs.  And we all know about their punishing defense.

Also, of the QBs that were taken in the first round, the majority of them were taken #1 overall (Peyton, Cam, Andrew Luck).  These players were known to be can’t miss, franchise QBs.

So what does that tell us?  Unless there’s a can’t miss talent at QB, you’re better off addressing other needs, and waiting to draft a QB later.

Is anyone falling faster than Teddy?

Is anyone falling faster than Teddy?

Face of the franchise?  Another good decision by Johnny Football.

Face of the franchise? Another good decision by Johnny Football.

Now let’s apply that concept to this years’ Draft.  There are a lot of QB needy teams, including Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota, all of whom have Top 10 picks in the Draft.  Here’s the list of the Top QBs:  Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater.  None of these guys have the same pedigree or ranking as Peyton, Cam, or Andrew Luck, or even RGIII or Matt Ryan.  Simply put:  while some (or all) may turn into great QBs, you certainly can’t call any of them a can’t miss prospect.

What that has resulted in is a couple of things.  One, teams at the top of the first round are thinking twice about drafting a QB in the first.  Teddy Bridgewater, the consensus #1 pick three months ago, is now falling out of the first round…Johnny Football is also dropping.  Two, teams are looking at the next group of Quarterbacks in the class.

Jimmy's leading the Day 2 charge of QBs.

Jimmy’s leading the Day 2 charge of QBs.

Indeed, the focus has been shifted to the second and third rounds, and the buzz is now over guys like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garropolo, Tom Savage, Zack Mettenberger, and AJ McCarron.  People are looking for the next Russell Wilson, or Colin Kaepernick.  Logan Thomas and Tajh Boyd are also getting some attention.

 

Could this be the best QB in the Draft?

Could this be the best QB in the Draft?

Point is:  you don’t need a first round QB to have success in the NFL.  Don’t buy into the myth that you “need” to draft one in the first round.  The best QB in the Draft could be sitting there on Day 2.

1 thought on “The Myth of the First Round Quarterback

  1. Pingback: The 2014 ‘What if’ Mock Draft… | Big Red Sports Machine

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